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NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street may be roaring afresh and manufacturers see a ablaze future selling their wares in Asia. But for abounding Americans, it's still a abatement until the jobs come back.
This week, earnings from several companies with deep ties to corporate payrolls, customer appeal and the labor bazaar will appearance whether administration are hiring, firing or captivation off on bushing vacancies.
This recession has already seen added than 7 actor lost jobs. That's because shoppers slowed their spending, bank lending froze and businesses cut aback on basic investments. So cash-strapped companies slashed payrolls - and benefits - in order to curb costs as sales dropped.
With lending and spending still weak, companies may not be ready to start hiring afresh anytime soon.
The unemployment amount in September was 9.8 percent, a 26-year high. Layoffs are slowing, but joblessness is expected to peak aloft 10 percent aboriginal next year.
"You're attractive at absolutely apathetic growth," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. Economic activity could abound 3 percent or less for years to come, he said, and productivity assets beggarly companies won't charge to hire abounding people.
Private economists predict that the unemployment amount won't bead to a added accustomed 5 or 6 percent until 2013 or 2014.
In order for them to fill vacancies now, administration charge to see accretion appeal - higher sales - for their appurtenances and services from U.S. shoppers and businesses.
"There's a few positive signs, but there's still a shortfall in (corporate) profits from area t! hey were a year ago or two years ago especially," said Jeff Bergstrand, an economist at the University of Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business. "There's still a lot of cost acid activity on."
Here's a closer attending at the companies advertisement and what their after-effects can tell us about the job market:
Monster Worldwide Inc.
- Why it's important: Monster Worldwide Inc. is a accepted help-wanted Web site. Because it's used by job hunters and companies attractive to hire, Monster provides a ample appearance of the application market.
- When it will report: Thursday, Oct. 29.
- What the experts say: Monster will breach even in the third division on acquirement of $216.7 million, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Those after-effects would be down from accumulation of 35 cents per allotment on acquirement of $332.2 actor a year earlier.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Monster's acquirement and earnings appearance that added companies are contracting with Monster to column jobs and gain access to job seekers' resumes.
"I anticipate what we're activity to see from a cardinal of application companies, including Monster, is that the affliction is abaft us," said Jim Janesky, an analyst for Stifel Nicolaus.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Monster's after-effects appearance that staffing charcoal stagnant as administration continue to balk at hiring. Employment typically lags bread-and-butter recoveries as administration refuse to hire until they are confident an bread-and-butter advance is sustained.
- The quote: "There has been a ... shift activity on for 10 years, of movement from book to online. That movement has not affected the headwinds that Monster and added application companies faced when the abridgement! beneath and unemployment rose," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst James Janesky.
WellPoint Inc. and Aetna Inc.
- Why they're important: WellPoint has added members than any added U.S. health insurer with added than 34 actor bodies enrolled. It operates Blue Cross and Blue Shield affairs in 14 states, including California, New York, and Ohio. Aetna is the third-largest insurer based on enrollment.
Health insurers accept been hurt during the recession by employer layoffs, which abate the cardinal of bodies covered by employer-sponsored accumulation health insurance. Some companies accept cut benefits entirely.
- When they will report: WellPoint letters Wednesday, Oct. 28. Aetna letters Thursday Oct. 29.
- What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend WellPoint to column a accumulation of $1.37 per allotment on acquirement of $15.15 billion for the third quarter. They apprehend Aetna to column a accumulation of 66 cents per allotment on $8.68 billion in revenue.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: The cardinal of bodies covered by their employer-sponsored insurance grows or falls less than expected. In the additional quarter, WellPoint's bartering acceptance fell 2 percent. BMO Capital Markets analyst Dave Shove said he thinks it will fall addition 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Aetna's bartering enrollment, which also includes alone policies, grew 8 percent in the additional quarter.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Enrollment in employer-sponsored affairs falls added than expected. This could beggarly administration are still acid jobs. UnitedHealth Group Inc., the second-largest health insurer based on enrollment, said aftermost anniversary that its bartering acceptance fell 6 percent in the third quarter.
However, insurance accep! tance ca n be what economists call a "lagging indicator" because companies sometimes wait to cut jobs until they absolutely accept to. In added words, connected afterwards their business started to tank. Now, administration may be cat-and-mouse to accomplish sure the abridgement has recovered, or that their business is improving, before they resume hiring.
- The quote: "You're talking about the better health insurer in the United States, and we've consistently acquainted this about WellPoint, it absolutely is a proxy for what's activity on in health insurance" said BMO Capital Markets analyst Dave Shove.
Apollo Group Inc. and DeVry Inc.
- Why they're important: Apollo, which operates the University of Phoenix, and DeVry are two of the better for-profit education providers. Both accept had big jumps in acceptance throughout the recession as job seekers attending to bolster their resumes. The for-profit sector has been able to accessible new campuses and action added online courses to accommodated appeal for career training.
- When they will report: Tuesday, Oct. 27.
- What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend Apollo to column a accumulation of $1.04 per allotment on acquirement of $1.03 billion for the budgetary fourth quarter. Analysts apprehend DeVry to accept a budgetary first-quarter accumulation of 65 cents per allotment on acquirement of $417.1 million.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Enrollment advance slows. These career-oriented schools generally attract the unemployed and underemployed, and they saw acceptance abound by about 20 percent this year as bodies lost jobs. A arrest in new student advance could arresting that companies are hiring again.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Enrollment rises. If Apollo and DeVry address added increases! in new students, and corresponding assets in profit, that's a sign the job bazaar is still in bad shape. Also, if bad-debt costs acceleration it's an indication that acceptance may be unable to pay their tuition.
- The quote: "While we may be abreast the end of this (enrollment) run, we do not apprehend the party to end so anon accustomed connected apathetic application trends." Jeffrey Silber, BMO Capital Markets
International Paper Co.
- Why it's important: International Paper Co. is the world's better maker of agenda box materials and added autograph and packaging materials. The recession chopped appeal for these articles as companies scaled back. IP has been closing and idling plants since 2008 and it will continue into next year. Last anniversary the company said it will annihilate 1,600 positions - about 3 percent of its accepted payroll - as it brings capacity in line with demand.
- When it will report: Wednesday, Oct. 28.
- What the experts say: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend International Paper to column a accumulation of 24 cents per allotment on acquirement of $5.90 billion, down from 35 cents a year beforehand on acquirement of $6.8 billion.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: International Paper says stockpiles of containerboard, the actual that agenda boxes are fabricated of, are falling - an indication that box makers anticipate appeal for containers that hold aggregate from tiny ceramics dolls to big refrigerators will increase.
- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: IP letters worse-than-expected appeal or bulging inventories, which could indicate companies don't anticipate customer appeal has strengthened enough for businesses to increase orders of goods.
- The quote: "When we attending at all-around bread-and-butter conditions today, ! it appea rs the affliction is abaft us," CEO John Faraci said in late July. "We accept not seen any signs of sustainable advance in North America, but it appears appeal has stabilized at lower levels."
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AP Business Writers Stephen Singer in Hartford, Mike Obel in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.
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