Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United States. Show all posts

Fed plan to police bank pay unlikely to curb risk

10/9: Drudge is Political HeadlinesImage by MyEyeSees via Flickr

NEW YORK (AP) -- It's the boldest idea yet to rein in Wall Street recklessness: Put the Federal Reserve in charge of policing not just the nation's banks, but also how much their employees are paid.

But can it work?

Some experts say the plan might help correct a pay system that has long rewarded those who make the sort of high-risk bets that triggered the financial crisis. Others see it as merely a short-term fix that wilil have little effect on making banks act more prudently.

The biggest concern is that as long as the government stands ready to rescue troubled banking giants, there's little to discourage traders from making potentially calamitous gambles on stocks, bonds and exotic financial products.

"Outsized pay that is a result of taking lots of risk is a problem," said Bill Fleckstein, a Seattle-based hedge fund manager. "But the real problem is the fact that these institutions have a setup where it's heads they win, tails the taxpayer loses."

Signs suggest that system still exists today. Only a year after the financial crisis peaked, the biggest banks are already making billions again placing risky bets with help from cheap government loans and other federal subsidies.

If those bets were to go bad, the loss to taxpayers could be immense. That's led some critics to call on the government to ban big commercial banks from trading risky securities - or shrink them so their collapse wouldn't jeopardize the economy.

The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve have resisted such calls, opting instead to seek the authority to take over and wind down large banks that get into serious trouble.

On Thursday, the Fed took a different tack, detailing plans to address the outsized compensation and risk-taking blamed for fueling the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Under the plan, the central bank wouldn't set compensation, but it would review pay polices - and veto those found to encourage excessive risk-taking by executives, traders or loan officers. Even banks that didn't benefit from the taxpayer-financed bailout would be subject to the Fed's compensation oversight.

The Fed plan would require the 28 biggest banks - including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. - to submit compensation plans for review. Thousands of smaller banks would also face supervision.

It's the latest in a string of proposals by the administration, Congress and banking regulators to crack down on the problem.

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist with the International Monetary Fund, said the plan might reduce excessive risk-taking at banks under the Fed's watch - but not at firms beyond the Fed's authority, including hedge funds and other securities firms that trade billions of dollars in complex securities and whose collapse could hurt the economy.

"This is a good start, but it's not enough," said Johnson, now a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management.

The Fed's plan was unveiled the same day that the Treasury's "pay czar," Kenneth Feinberg, announced plans to slash pay at seven big firms that haven't repaid their government bailout money.

Those companies must to cut their top executives' average total compensation - salary and bonuses - in half, starting in November. Under the plan, cash salaries for the top 25 highest-paid executives will be limited in most cases to $500,000 and, in most cases, perks will be capped at $25,000.

Speaking Friday, Feinberg said he will now turn to designing compensation structures for 75 additional high-paid employees at the companies that received extraordinary bailouts: Bank of America, American International Group Inc., Citigroup, General Motors, GMAC, Chrysler and Chrysler Financial.

For the executives ranking 26 through 100 in pay, Feinberg will set up a general plan to govern their pay, rather than specific terms.

Feinberg also has the authority to claw back compensation at any firm that received money from the $700 billion bailout program and still hasn't paid it back. But he said he's reluctant to do that.

The government's involvement in determining Wall Street pay has raised concerns that top performers could flee to companies or industries with less restrictive pay rules.

At some of the seven firms under Feinberg's authority, more than half of the 25 top earners had already left. They include 14 at Bank of America and 13 at American International Group. But Feinberg said he will set pay for their replacements at the beginning of next year.

Other analysts said the Fed, meanwhile, would find it hard to define exactly what constitutes excessive risk-taking. Banks and regulators themselves missed the warning signs before the housing bubble popped last year.

"What is excessive risk and who knows?" said David Yermack, finance professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

From a logistical standpoint, he called the Fed's proposal to gauge the level of risk-taking at thousands of banks "ridiculous."

"You would need thousands of experts, and to think you can identify which traders are taking on too much risk may be impossible," he said.

Even the Treasury's pay czar acknowledged the difficulty of determining when a risk is excessi! ve.

"I'm not sure what is risk," he said. "I'm certainly not sure what is excessive risk."

---


Earnings reports to give picture of job market

This is the headquarters building of the Aetna...Image via Wikipedia

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street may be roaring afresh and manufacturers see a ablaze future selling their wares in Asia. But for abounding Americans, it's still a abatement until the jobs come back.

This week, earnings from several companies with deep ties to corporate payrolls, customer appeal and the labor bazaar will appearance whether administration are hiring, firing or captivation off on bushing vacancies.

This recession has already seen added than 7 actor lost jobs. That's because shoppers slowed their spending, bank lending froze and businesses cut aback on basic investments. So cash-strapped companies slashed payrolls - and benefits - in order to curb costs as sales dropped.

With lending and spending still weak, companies may not be ready to start hiring afresh anytime soon.

The unemployment amount in September was 9.8 percent, a 26-year high. Layoffs are slowing, but joblessness is expected to peak aloft 10 percent aboriginal next year.

"You're attractive at absolutely apathetic growth," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. Economic activity could abound 3 percent or less for years to come, he said, and productivity assets beggarly companies won't charge to hire abounding people.

Private economists predict that the unemployment amount won't bead to a added accustomed 5 or 6 percent until 2013 or 2014.

In order for them to fill vacancies now, administration charge to see accretion appeal - higher sales - for their appurtenances and services from U.S. shoppers and businesses.

"There's a few positive signs, but there's still a shortfall in (corporate) profits from area t! hey were a year ago or two years ago especially," said Jeff Bergstrand, an economist at the University of Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business. "There's still a lot of cost acid activity on."

Here's a closer attending at the companies advertisement and what their after-effects can tell us about the job market:

Monster Worldwide Inc.

- Why it's important: Monster Worldwide Inc. is a accepted help-wanted Web site. Because it's used by job hunters and companies attractive to hire, Monster provides a ample appearance of the application market.

- When it will report: Thursday, Oct. 29.

- What the experts say: Monster will breach even in the third division on acquirement of $216.7 million, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Those after-effects would be down from accumulation of 35 cents per allotment on acquirement of $332.2 actor a year earlier.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Monster's acquirement and earnings appearance that added companies are contracting with Monster to column jobs and gain access to job seekers' resumes.

"I anticipate what we're activity to see from a cardinal of application companies, including Monster, is that the affliction is abaft us," said Jim Janesky, an analyst for Stifel Nicolaus.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Monster's after-effects appearance that staffing charcoal stagnant as administration continue to balk at hiring. Employment typically lags bread-and-butter recoveries as administration refuse to hire until they are confident an bread-and-butter advance is sustained.

- The quote: "There has been a ... shift activity on for 10 years, of movement from book to online. That movement has not affected the headwinds that Monster and added application companies faced when the abridgement! beneath and unemployment rose," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst James Janesky.

WellPoint Inc. and Aetna Inc.

- Why they're important: WellPoint has added members than any added U.S. health insurer with added than 34 actor bodies enrolled. It operates Blue Cross and Blue Shield affairs in 14 states, including California, New York, and Ohio. Aetna is the third-largest insurer based on enrollment.

Health insurers accept been hurt during the recession by employer layoffs, which abate the cardinal of bodies covered by employer-sponsored accumulation health insurance. Some companies accept cut benefits entirely.

- When they will report: WellPoint letters Wednesday, Oct. 28. Aetna letters Thursday Oct. 29.

- What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend WellPoint to column a accumulation of $1.37 per allotment on acquirement of $15.15 billion for the third quarter. They apprehend Aetna to column a accumulation of 66 cents per allotment on $8.68 billion in revenue.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: The cardinal of bodies covered by their employer-sponsored insurance grows or falls less than expected. In the additional quarter, WellPoint's bartering acceptance fell 2 percent. BMO Capital Markets analyst Dave Shove said he thinks it will fall addition 3.5 percent in the third quarter. Aetna's bartering enrollment, which also includes alone policies, grew 8 percent in the additional quarter.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Enrollment in employer-sponsored affairs falls added than expected. This could beggarly administration are still acid jobs. UnitedHealth Group Inc., the second-largest health insurer based on enrollment, said aftermost anniversary that its bartering acceptance fell 6 percent in the third quarter.

However, insurance accep! tance ca n be what economists call a "lagging indicator" because companies sometimes wait to cut jobs until they absolutely accept to. In added words, connected afterwards their business started to tank. Now, administration may be cat-and-mouse to accomplish sure the abridgement has recovered, or that their business is improving, before they resume hiring.

- The quote: "You're talking about the better health insurer in the United States, and we've consistently acquainted this about WellPoint, it absolutely is a proxy for what's activity on in health insurance" said BMO Capital Markets analyst Dave Shove.

Apollo Group Inc. and DeVry Inc.

- Why they're important: Apollo, which operates the University of Phoenix, and DeVry are two of the better for-profit education providers. Both accept had big jumps in acceptance throughout the recession as job seekers attending to bolster their resumes. The for-profit sector has been able to accessible new campuses and action added online courses to accommodated appeal for career training.

- When they will report: Tuesday, Oct. 27.

- What the experts say: On average, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend Apollo to column a accumulation of $1.04 per allotment on acquirement of $1.03 billion for the budgetary fourth quarter. Analysts apprehend DeVry to accept a budgetary first-quarter accumulation of 65 cents per allotment on acquirement of $417.1 million.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: Enrollment advance slows. These career-oriented schools generally attract the unemployed and underemployed, and they saw acceptance abound by about 20 percent this year as bodies lost jobs. A arrest in new student advance could arresting that companies are hiring again.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: Enrollment rises. If Apollo and DeVry address added increases! in new students, and corresponding assets in profit, that's a sign the job bazaar is still in bad shape. Also, if bad-debt costs acceleration it's an indication that acceptance may be unable to pay their tuition.

- The quote: "While we may be abreast the end of this (enrollment) run, we do not apprehend the party to end so anon accustomed connected apathetic application trends." Jeffrey Silber, BMO Capital Markets

International Paper Co.

- Why it's important: International Paper Co. is the world's better maker of agenda box materials and added autograph and packaging materials. The recession chopped appeal for these articles as companies scaled back. IP has been closing and idling plants since 2008 and it will continue into next year. Last anniversary the company said it will annihilate 1,600 positions - about 3 percent of its accepted payroll - as it brings capacity in line with demand.

- When it will report: Wednesday, Oct. 28.

- What the experts say: Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters apprehend International Paper to column a accumulation of 24 cents per allotment on acquirement of $5.90 billion, down from 35 cents a year beforehand on acquirement of $6.8 billion.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is convalescent if: International Paper says stockpiles of containerboard, the actual that agenda boxes are fabricated of, are falling - an indication that box makers anticipate appeal for containers that hold aggregate from tiny ceramics dolls to big refrigerators will increase.

- You'll apperceive the abridgement is not convalescent if: IP letters worse-than-expected appeal or bulging inventories, which could indicate companies don't anticipate customer appeal has strengthened enough for businesses to increase orders of goods.

- The quote: "When we attending at all-around bread-and-butter conditions today, ! it appea rs the affliction is abaft us," CEO John Faraci said in late July. "We accept not seen any signs of sustainable advance in North America, but it appears appeal has stabilized at lower levels."

---

AP Business Writers Stephen Singer in Hartford, Mike Obel in New York and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.


Bank failures top 100, only part of industry woes

The FDIC's satellite campus in Arlington, Virg...Image via Wikipedia

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The avalanche of coffer failures this year surpassed 100 on Friday, the best in about two decades. And the agitation in the cyberbanking arrangement from bad loans and the recession goes alike deeper than the cardinal suggests.

Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other banks remain open alike admitting they are as anemic as abounding that accept been shuttered. Regulators are seizing banks slowly and selectively - partly to abstain inciting panic and partly because buyers for bad banks are adamantine to find.

Going apathetic buys time. An economic accretion could save some banks that would otherwise go under. But if the accretion is apathetic and abate banks' finances get alike worse, it could wind up costing alike more.

The coffer failures, 105 in all, are the best in any year since 120 collapsed in 1992, at the end of the savings-and-loan crisis. On Friday, regulators took over three small Florida banks - Partners Bank and Hillcrest Bank Florida, both of Naples, and Flagship National Bank in Bradenton - forth with American United Bank of Lawrenceville, Ga., Bank of Elmwood in Racine, Wis., and Riverview Community Bank, based in Otsego, Minn.

When a coffer fails, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. swoops in, usually on a Friday afternoon. It tries to advertise off the bank's assets to buyers and awning its liabilities, primarily chump deposits. It taps the allowance armamentarium to awning the rest.

Bank failures accept amount the FDIC's armamentarium that insures deposits an estimated $25 billion this year and are expected to amount $100 billion through 2013. To replenish the fund, the bureau wants banks to pay in beforehand $45 billion in premiums that! would a ccept been due over the next three years.

The FDIC won't say how abysmal a aperture its drop allowance armamentarium is in. It can tap a acclaim band from the Treasury of up to a half-trillion dollars to awning the gap.

The list of banks in agitation is getting longer. At the end of June, the FDIC had flagged 416 as being at risk of failure, up from 305 at the end of March and 252 at the beginning of the year.

Yet the clip of actual coffer failures appears to be slowing. The FDIC seized 24 banks in July, 11 in September and 10 in October.

If any coffer poses an immediate danger to customers or the broader banking system, regulators abutting it immediately, coffer supervisors said. The issue is murkier for troubled banks that might qualify to abutting but whose closings might still be adjourned or alike prevented.

The FDIC's first priority, agent Andrew Gray said, is to maintain accessible aplomb in the cyberbanking system. "As evidenced by the stability of insured deposits throughout last year, this mission has been a success," he said.

He said accessible aplomb isn't reason abundant to delay a coffer closing, because legally the decision to abutting rests with whoever chartered the coffer - a state or federal agency.

But added than a dozen experts, including current and former regulators, bankers and lawyers, say the FDIC's mission to maintain accessible aplomb in the cyberbanking arrangement contributes to the go-slow approach.

"The FDIC was set up to create aplomb and prevent coffer runs," says Mark Williams, a former coffer examiner for the Federal Reserve. Being too aggressive about coffer closings "can be adverse to the mission."

Sarah Bloom Raskin, Maryland's top cyberbanking regulator, said: "Technically it's the states who decide, but in reality it's the FDIC callin! g you to say" back the coffer will be closed.

Last fall, the banking turmoil was rooted in bad bets that the nation's biggest banks, like Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., had made on complicated, high-risk mortgage investments.

Smaller banks accept been baffled by article added conventional - absolute estate, construction and industrial loans that accept soured as the recession has deepened. Defaults are up as developers abandon failing projects and landlords can't accommodated their loan payments.

Small- and mid-sized banks authority lots of those loans and accept been aching added than big ones by the sinking bartering absolute acreage market, abnormally in states like California, Georgia and Illinois. As defaults rise, these banks charge set aside added money to awning losses.

For the banks, this agency mounting losses and shrinking reserves.

In a healthy economy, Williams said, the Fed and the FDIC would be inclined to abutting such anemic banks. But these days, those agencies and other regulators prefer to authority off, hoping an economic accretion will eventually restore the bloom of some of the banks.

But the accretion is expected to be slow. Americans remain afraid to spend money because of job losses, flat wages, tight acclaim and aerial debt. Their cutbacks accept triggered tens of thousands of business failures.

Abandoned retail space in downtowns and suburban malls agency no rental income for acreage owners. As landlords default on absolute acreage loans, they abate the banks that authority the loans.

The situation now is abnormally grave in Southern California, Georgia and Illinois, which accept some of the highest home foreclosure rates. Twenty banks accept bankrupt in Georgia alone.

Individual coffer depositors aren't at risk back a coffer fails. Their money! is affi rmed up to $250,000 by the government. Ever conscious of advancement accessible confidence, bureau officials hammer this point in accessible statements.

When anemic banks are allowed to stay open, their growing losses potentially can cesspool the FDIC's drop allowance armamentarium faster, says Bert Ely, an independent cyberbanking consultant.

Federal agencies aren't the only ones with an interest in slowing the clip of coffer closings. State regulators with closer ties to bounded communities want to abstain the ripple furnishings back a boondocks loses its main source of customer and business credit, Williams said.

But finding buyers for fluctuant banks has been tough.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair accustomed as much in affidavit this month before a Senate panel. The FDIC has been offering to allotment buyers' losses on the assets being transferred, she said.

"In the accomplished several months investor interest has been low," she said in prepared testimony.

In an effort to acquisition added potential buyers, the FDIC has relaxed the rules for private-equity firms to buy banks. In the past, regulators had feared such a move would acquiesce investors to protect themselves from the amount of coffer failures, artifice austere consequences while cartoon down the FDIC's fund.

An aboriginal success of the new strategy was a accord announced this month to advertise assets from Corus Bank of Chicago to a accumulation of private investors. But there still aren't abundant buyers to absorb quickly all the assets held by at-risk banks.

That's because there are so abounding anemic and failing banks on the bazaar - and so few others strong abundant to buy them. That's one reason it's adamantine to know how abounding added banks could be bankrupt in coming months, said Daniel Alpert, Managing Partner of the New York a! dvance c offer Westwood Capital LLC.

"How abounding banks will survive?" Alpert asked. "Loans are still deteriorating, but there are glimmers of hope in the economy. Ultimately, it's all about employment."


Bank failures hit 106 for year; many more are weak

Seal of the United States Federal Deposit Insu...Image via Wikipedia

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's a big number that only tells part of the story. The number of banks that have failed so far this year topped 100 on Friday - hitting 106 by the end of the day - the most in nearly two decades. But the trouble in the banking system from bad loans and the recession goes even deeper.

Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of other banks remain open even though they are as weak as many that have been shuttered. Regulators are seizing banks slowly and selectively - partly to avoid inciting panic and partly because buyers for bad banks are hard to find.

Going slow buys time. An economic recovery could save some banks that would otherwise go under. But if the recovery is slow and smaller banks' finances get even worse, it could wind up costing even more.

This year's 106 bank failures are the most in any year since 181 collapsed in 1992 at the end of the savings-and-loan crisis. On Friday, regulators took over three small Florida banks - Partners Bank and Hillcrest Bank Florida, both of Naples, and Flagship National Bank in Bradenton - along with four elsewhere: American United Bank of Lawrenceville, Ga., Bank of Elmwood in Racine, Wis., Riverview Community Bank in Otsego, Minn., and First Dupage Bank in Westmont, Ill.

When a bank fails, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. swoops in, usually on a Friday afternoon. It tries to sell off the bank's assets to buyers and cover its liabilities, primarily customer deposits. It taps the insurance fund to cover the rest.

Bank failures have cost the FDIC's fund that insures deposits an estimated $25 billion this year and are expected to cost $100 billion through 2013. To replenish the fund, the agency wants banks to pay in a! dvance $ 45 billion in premiums that would have been due over the next three years.

The FDIC won't say how deep a hole its deposit insurance fund is in. It can tap a credit line from the Treasury of up to a half-trillion dollars to cover the gap.

The list of banks in trouble is getting longer. At the end of June, the FDIC had flagged 416 as being at risk of failure, up from 305 at the end of March and 252 at the beginning of the year.

Yet the pace of actual bank failures appears to be slowing. The FDIC seized 24 banks in July, 11 in September and 11 in October.

If any bank poses an immediate danger to customers or the broader financial system, regulators close it immediately, bank supervisors said. The issue is murkier for troubled banks that might qualify to close but whose closings might still be postponed or even prevented.

The FDIC's first priority, spokesman Andrew Gray said, is to maintain public confidence in the banking system. "As evidenced by the stability of insured deposits throughout last year, this mission has been a success," he said.

He said public confidence isn't reason enough to delay a bank closing, because legally the decision to close rests with whoever chartered the bank - a state or federal agency.

But more than a dozen experts, including current and former regulators, bankers and lawyers, say the FDIC's mission to maintain public confidence in the banking system contributes to the go-slow approach.

"The FDIC was set up to create confidence and prevent bank runs," says Mark Williams, a former bank examiner for the Federal Reserve. Being too aggressive about bank closings "can be counter to the mission."

Sarah Bloom Raskin, Maryland's top banking regulator, said: "Technically it's the states who decide, but in reality it's the FDIC calling you to say" when the ! bank wil l be closed.

Last fall, the financial turmoil was rooted in bad bets that the nation's biggest banks, like Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., had made on complicated, high-risk mortgage investments.

Smaller banks have been undone by something more conventional - real estate, construction and industrial loans that have soured as the recession has deepened. Defaults are up as developers abandon failing projects and landlords can't meet their loan payments.

Small- and mid-sized banks hold lots of those loans and have been hurt more than big ones by the sinking commercial real estate market, especially in states like California, Georgia and Illinois. As defaults rise, these banks must set aside more money to cover losses.

For the banks, this means mounting losses and shrinking reserves.

In a healthy economy, Williams said, the Fed and the FDIC would be inclined to close such weak banks. But these days, those agencies and other regulators prefer to hold off, hoping an economic recovery will eventually restore the health of some of the banks.

But the recovery is expected to be slow. Americans remain hesitant to spend money because of job losses, flat wages, tight credit and high debt. Their cutbacks have triggered tens of thousands of business failures.

Abandoned retail space in downtowns and suburban malls means no rental income for property owners. As landlords default on real estate loans, they weaken the banks that hold the loans.

The situation now is especially grave in Southern California, Georgia and Illinois, which have some of the highest home foreclosure rates. Twenty banks have closed in Georgia alone.

Individual bank depositors aren't at risk when a bank fails. Their money is guaranteed up to $250,000 by the government. Ever conscious of maintaining public confi! dence, a gency officials hammer this point in public statements.

When weak banks are allowed to stay open, their growing losses potentially can drain the FDIC's deposit insurance fund faster, says Bert Ely, an independent banking consultant.

Federal agencies aren't the only ones with an interest in slowing the pace of bank closings. State regulators with closer ties to local communities want to avoid the ripple effects when a town loses its main source of consumer and business credit, Williams said.

But finding buyers for wobbly banks has been tough.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair acknowledged as much in testimony this month before a Senate panel. The FDIC has been offering to share buyers' losses on the assets being transferred, she said.

"In the past several months investor interest has been low," she said in prepared testimony.

In an effort to find more potential buyers, the FDIC has relaxed the rules for private-equity firms to buy banks. In the past, regulators had feared such a move would allow investors to protect themselves from the cost of bank failures, escaping serious consequences while drawing down the FDIC's fund.

An early success of the new strategy was a deal announced this month to sell assets from Corus Bank of Chicago to a group of private investors. But there still aren't enough buyers to absorb quickly all the assets held by at-risk banks.

That's because there are so many weak and failing banks on the market - and so few others strong enough to buy them. That's one reason it's hard to know how many more banks could be closed in coming months, said Daniel Alpert, Managing Partner of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.

"How many banks will survive?" Alpert asked. "Loans are still deteriorating, but there are glimmers of hope in the economy. Ultimately, it! 's all a bout employment."

--

AP Business Writers Marcy Gordon in Washington and Sara Lepro in New York contributed to this report.


Economy recovering in many areas, but not others

Ohio State UniversityImage via Wikipedia

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Midwest is starting to see a comeback in manufacturing and technology. Home sales are rising in parts of the Northeast. But states like Florida, Nevada and California, still suffering from the housing bust, remain depressed.

The economy's tentative recovery is occurring in pockets around the country, with some states and cities starting to rebound while neighboring areas still struggle, two government reports showed Wednesday.

They showed improving job markets in some Midwestern states, such as Indiana and Ohio. But other states, such as Rhode Island, posted new record-high joblessness.

In the Fed's latest survey of businesses nationwide, all but two of 12 regions showed at least some signs of improvement. Only the Atlanta and St. Louis regions reported weaker economic activity.

The survey found many parts of the country either stabilized or improved modestly over the past six weeks. The Boston, Cleveland and Richmond, Va., regions reported growing home sales, though the gains came from depressed levels.

But the picture is still far bleaker in places hit hardest by the collapse of the housing market. Florida reported a record-high jobless rate of 11 percent, according to the Labor Department. Nevada's climbed to 13.3 percent, also a record.

Michigan, home of the battered American auto industry, claimed the highest jobless rate in the country - 15.3 percent.

While Americans still hold tight to their wallets, pickups in housing and manufacturing activity are leading the budding recovery in most of the country, according to Fed's survey.

Economists warn that the improvements could fizzle, though, after gover! nment he lp is removed. For example, gains in the housing market could be threatened if a tax credit for first-time homebuyers is allowed to expire Nov. 30.

"The main story here is the economy is starting to turn around," said Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group. "This is not a consumer-led recovery. This is very much a stimulus-led recovery. And it begs the question: What happens when the government supports are withdrawn?"

Factories have been increasing production as businesses restock depleted inventories. Part of that restocking was due to the Cash for Clunkers program this summer, which caused a brief burst in car sales.

By contrast, the Fed said the weakest link in the recovery is commercial real estate, with vacancies high across the country and businesses unable to get credit to buy or build commercial space.

The nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September, and is expected to top 10 percent this year. Economists predict it will rise as high as 10.5 percent by the middle of next year before slowly drifting down.

The Labor Department report said unemployment rose in 23 states last month. While layoffs have slowed, companies remain reluctant to hire. Forty-three states reported job losses in September, while only seven gained jobs.

The findings of the Fed survey will figure into discussions when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues meet in early November. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at record lows into next year to help foster the recovery.

Many analysts believe the economy started to grow again in the third quarter. Results will be out next week, and a return to growth would be a turning point for the economy after a full year of contraction.

The Fed survey, known as the Beige Book, offers anecdotal snapshots of economi! c and fi nancial activity nationwide from businesses which are on the front lines of the economy. Information for the report was collected before Oct. 13.

The tone "was more tentatively positive," said economist Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets. "Not super-duper-jumping-up-and-down-with-great-excitement positive, but slightly more optimistic than seen in recent reports."

Among the findings: Dallas said there were slight improvements in residential real estate and at staffing firms. New York saw gains in manufacturing and retail. Philadelphia, Cleveland and San Francisco cited small pickups in manufacturing. Kansas City noted improvements at technology companies, while Richmond posted revenue gains at service companies.

By region, the West had the highest unemployment rate, 10.6 percent. The South's was 9.3 percent, and the Northeast had the lowest, 9 percent. The Midwest, at 9.8 percent, was the only region where joblessness fell from the month before.

Indiana, for example, has benefited from a rebound in the auto sector and a healthy medical device industry, and unemployment has dropped two months in a row, said Robert Guell, an economics professor at Indiana State University in Terre Haute.

He's no longer skeptical that the improvements have been a fluke. "It does look green shoot-like," he said.

The state is home to many auto parts and assembly plants, which are ramping up production as General Motors and Chrysler replenish inventories depleted by the popular clunkers program.

In Ohio, the jobless rate fell to 10.1 percent, from 10.8 percent in August and 11.2 percent in July.

Lucia Dunn, an economics professor at Ohio State University, said the state has benefited from growth in financial services and technology companies. Recruiters from a JPMorgan Chase & Co. regional office frequently contact he! r seekin g candidates for economist and statistician jobs.

"Most people here feel that the worst is over," Dunn said.


23 states report higher unemployment in September

WASHINGTON - MARCH 05:  U.S. President George ...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Unemployment rose in 23 states last month as the economy struggled to create jobs in the early stages of the recovery.

While layoffs have slowed, companies remain reluctant to hire. Forty-three states reported job losses in September, while only seven gained jobs, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

Wednesday's report underscores the uneven nature of the recovery. The unemployment rate dropped in some Midwestern states as the manufacturing sector improved. But Florida and Nevada, two of the states hit hardest by the housing slump, reported record-high jobless rates.

Some of the states that lost jobs still saw their unemployment rates improve, as discouraged workers gave up looking for work. People who are out of work but no longer looking for jobs aren't counted as officially unemployed.

That trend was evident nationwide in September, as nearly 600,000 people dropped out of the work force, the department reported earlier this month.

The U.S. jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, a 26-year high, from 9.7 percent. Some economists estimate it would have topped 10 percent if there had been no change in the labor force.

There were some bright spots in Wednesday's report. The Midwest region, hit hard during the recession by job losses in manufacturing, saw its unemployment rate drop for the second straight month, to 9.8 percent from 10 percent in August. It was the only region where the unemployment rate declined.

The Midwest benefited from sharp drops in unemployment in Indiana and Ohio. Indiana's jobless rate fell to 9.6 percent, from 9.9 percent in August and 10.7 percent in June.

Indiana added 4,400 j! obs, the most of any state, due to gains in manufacturing, services and government.

The state's jobless rate has dropped for two straight months, said Robert Guell, an economics professor at Indiana State University in Terre Haute, easing his skepticism that the improvement might have been a fluke.

"It does look green shoot-like," he said.

The state has benefited from a rebound in the auto sector and a healthy medical device industry, he said. Indiana is home to many auto parts and assembly plants, which are ramping up production as General Motors and Chrysler seek to replenish inventories depleted by the popular Cash for Clunkers program.

Honda Motor Co. also manufactures the Civic at a plant in the state, Guell said. The Civic was a major beneficiary of the clunkers program, which provided rebates to consumers who traded in old cars for newer, more fuel-efficient models.

Ohio, meanwhile, saw its jobless rate drop to 10.1 percent, from 10.8 percent in August and 11.2 percent in July.

Lucia Dunn, an economics professor at Ohio State University in Columbus, said the state has benefited in recent years from growth in financial services and technology companies. Recruiters from a JPMorgan Chase & Co. regional office frequently contact her seeking candidates for economist and statistician jobs.

"Most people here feel that the worst is over," Dunn said.

Still, Ohio lost about 6,000 jobs in September, and much of the improvement in its unemployment rate came from discouraged workers leaving the work force.

Nevada, Rhode Island and Florida last month posted their highest jobless rates on records dating to 1976, the department said. Fifteen states and Washington, D.C., reported unemployment rates of 10 percent or more.

Michigan reported the nation's highest une! mploymen t rate at 15.3 percent. It was followed by Nevada at 13.3 percent, Rhode Island at 13 percent, California at 12.2 percent and South Carolina at 11.6 percent.

Real estate continues to bedevil states that enjoyed a housing boom. Florida's jobless rate rose to 11 percent from 10.8 percent in August, as the state lost nearly 13,000 construction jobs. California lost 39,300 jobs, including more than 14,000 in construction. Nevada lost 3,500 construction jobs, though it boosted employment in services.

In Florida, the housing boom at one point reduced the state's jobless rate to 3.3 percent, said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

But now, "the trough is as deep as the peak was high," he said.

Florida also lost population for the first time in 60 years in 2008, he said, leaving even more empty homes and condominiums.

The state's unemployment rate won't drop below 10 percent until 2012, Snaith predicts.

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy.

Quicker rebound for exporters to China, India

A share entitling to 1/8 of the Stora Kopparbe...Image via Wikipedia

Companies that ship coal, chemicals, soft drinks and purses to emerging markets like India and China appear to be snapping out of the recession faster than those that are closely tied to the U.S. and Europe.

Earnings reports out Tuesday show that sales in emerging markets are providing a glimmer of hope for both the companies and their investors. In more developed parts of the world, companies still have to rely on cost-cutting to muddle through.

Caterpillar Inc., which makes heavy equipment, raised its earnings forecast for the year because of performance in Asia, its best-performing region. Deliveries of its products in China were higher than they had ever been for the third quarter.

Other companies, including drugmaker Pfizer and handbag maker Coach, say sales are picking up in Asia, and they're rushing to add salespeople and open new stores.

Asian economies are stronger now because they adopted fiscal stimulus plans right away when their economies started to weaken, said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities.

Their economies also didn't have as much debt to unwind as the U.S., and now that lending has rebounded, they're poised to grow, he said.

"They took a hit when global trade just plunged last year, but once trade finance started to flow again, these guys were quick to recoup," he said.

John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said in a speech Tuesday that Asia is set to emerge from the global slump first, even though it was among the hardest-hit because of its focus on high-tech and manufacturing.

Manufacturers, who typically export a bi! g portio n of their goods, are also benefiting from a falling U.S. dollar, which makes overseas sales more valuable, said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at RBS.

The dollar gained strength starting last year, which hurt companies with sales overseas because those sales translated to fewer dollars. But the U.S. currency has weakened recently.

"It makes it much easier if you're an exporter because the revenues you're pulling in from overseas are worth more in dollars, and (that) makes it easier to compete on a price basis," he said.

Of course, companies everywhere are still struggling with the effects of the recession. Asia managed to be Caterpillar's best-performing region with a sales decline of 26 percent.

Evidence of renewed strength in Asia was everywhere in corporate earnings reports:

- Pfizer Inc., the world's biggest drugmaker, said sales rose 9 percent in China, India and other emerging markets, excluding exchange rates. The company has been adding salespeople in China and boosting advertising there.

- DuPont Co., which makes chemical products found in everything from toys to cars and houses, said sales in China rose 7 percent during the quarter. They fell 18 percent in the U.S., Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

"We've got important opportunities to penetrate that market even further," DuPont Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Keefer said of China.

- Coal miner Peabody Energy Corp. said China's imports of coal used for steelmaking this year through August were 10 times last year's pace. India has said it may face coal shortages of 200 million tons per year by 2014, meaning it will have to import more, too.

Meanwhile, U.S. power fueled by coal has dipped 10 percent this year to date, according to Peabody, which fuels about one-tenth of the country's electricity generation! .

It's not just the big manufactured goods, but the smaller ones, too. Coach Inc. reported sales of its luxury handbags rose in double digits at its Chinese stores open at least a year. That compares with a drop of 1.1 percent in the U.S.

The company plans to open 15 new locations in China this year, up from four last year. In North America, it plans 10 new stores, half as many as Coach opened each of the past two years.

And soft-drink sales may be fizzling in the U.S., but they're soaring overseas for Coca-Cola Co., which plans a $2 billion investment, along with its bottlers, in China in the next three years.

The world's largest beverage maker said Tuesday that sales outside its home turf helped profits inch higher in the third quarter. People in North America bought fewer drinks, but India recorded 37 percent growth in cases sold, while China had 15 percent more and Latin America 7 percent.

"You've got an emerging middle class that is getting more educated, and they'll be spending more money on consumer products and all kinds of products," said Edward Jones analyst Jack Russo.

---

AP Business Writers Dan Lovering, Jim Suhr, Randall Chase, Linda Johnson and Mae Anderson contributed to this report.